A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
